The release of a budget document invariably draws attention to the fine print of various policy announcements made by the government, probing into who and how they will be impacted. While this analysis is undoubtedly crucial, it is equally important—if not more so—to scrutinize whether the financial figures presented align with these policy statements. Specifically, it’s vital to assess if the government can realistically meet its policy objectives within the existing financial constraints. This consideration becomes particularly significant in light of the current budget, released merely months after the interim budget of February 2024, which only introduced incremental changes. Despite the lack of major announcements in February, the latest budget of July 2024 presents several radical policies without significant adjustments in the allocation or sources of funds. This article aims to dissect the subtle shifts from the February budget and evaluate their adequacy in backing the radical policy shifts necessary for this budget’s ambitions.
Account Summary
In order to maintain a consistent approach, I have chosen to analyze the changes in the Budgetary Estimates (BE) within the account summary over a period of 10 months. Why focus on BE instead of actuals? This method facilitates a direct, like-for-like comparison, as BE is typically revised annually in January if there’s a significant misalignment with the actuals from the previous year. Consequently, these revisions inherently reflect any discrepancies between projected and actual figures. The diagram below illustrates these changes comprehensively.
