Following the recent tariff hikes, many individuals in the affordable segment have gravitated toward BSNL connections, resulting in a significant migration of subscribers from other mobile operators. According to TRAI’s subscription report, between July 2024 and October 2024, BSNL added 6.8 million wireless subscribers, while Vodafone lost an identical number. Meanwhile, Bharti Airtel and Jio gained 3.6 million and 16.5 million subscribers, respectively, reflecting a trend of SIM consolidation.
Despite this influx, many subscribers who switched to BSNL have expressed dissatisfaction due to poor service quality and persistent network issues. This article aims to systematically examine why BSNL’s 4G network performance remains subpar, despite the government’s claim—made in response to a parliamentary question—of spending ₹1.33 lakh crore out of the total ₹2.28 lakh crore revival package and deploying 61,492 4G sites as of December 6, 2024.
As part of this analysis, we will dive deeper into the data to identify any discrepancies by mapping these figures against the aggregated numbers for 5G, 4G BTS, and tower data regularly published on the Department of Telecommunications (DoT) Dashboard. Any inconsistencies will be highlighted in the process. Since detailed band-wise information is not available, we will make assumptions and conduct scenario analyses to estimate the likely deployment mix across various bands—700 MHz, 2100 MHz, and 2500 MHz—for 4G. We will also evaluate the pros and cons of each deployment mix to provide a clearer understanding of the challenges and opportunities in improving BSNL’s network coverage and performance.
BSNL 4G Deployment Mapped with DoT Dashboard Data
The minister’s response to a parliamentary question indicated that the supply of 4G equipment to BSNL began in September 2023. Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that BSNL likely started deploying its 4G BTS-based network from October 2023.
According to DoT’s dashboard, the total BTS count (all technologies combined) stood at 28.34 lakh in October 2023, increasing to 29.59 lakh as of December 2024—an incremental growth of 1.24 lakh BTS during this period. DoT also regularly publishes 5G BTS data, which grew from 3.85 lakh in October 2023 to 4.65 lakh in December 2024, reflecting an increase of 80,102 BTS (0.8 lakh) for 5G within this window period. See the snapshot of embedded Dashboard below.
Using this information, we can deduce that the BTS count for other technologies (non-5G) grew modestly, from 24.48 lakh (28.34 – 3.85) to 24.93 lakh (29.59 – 4.65) —an increase of only 45,000 BTS. If BSNL’s claim of deploying 61,492 4G BTS is accurate, this implies that a significant number of non-4G BTS (likely 2G and 3G) were decommissioned by BSNL and other operators. But how many?
Estimating Tower and BTS Dynamics
To explore further, we examine tower counts. As of October 2023, the total number of towers for all operators stood at 7.79 lakh, increasing to 8.17 lakh by December 2024—a growth of 38,000 towers. Since BSNL’s tower count remained relatively constant at around 70,000 during this period (it stood at 67340 as of 31st Mar 2024 as per parliament question answered by minister on 24th July 2024) , we can assume that this 38,000 increase in towers was contributed entirely by private operators.
Given that 4G typically takes priority over 5G on new towers (due to broader coverage requirements), it is plausible to assume that all 38,000 new towers hosted at least one 4G BTS. This would mean private operators collectively deployed a minimum of 38,000 new 4G BTS during this window. Note this number is like to be higher to given multiple band deployment approach on 4G to meet both coverage and capacity needs, but let’s go with the conservative number of 38K.
Adding BSNL’s 61,492 new 4G BTS to the private operators’ 38,000 new 4G BTS gives a total of approximately One Lakh new 4G BTS deployed between October 2023 and December 2024. However, the total increase in non-5G BTS (including 2G, 3G, and 4G) during this period was only 45,000. This discrepancy of 55,000 BTS suggests that older 2G and 3G BTS were decommissioned.
Identifying the Sources of Decommissioned BTS
RJio does not operate 2G or 3G networks, so the decommissioning must have been done by BSNL, Bharti Airtel, or Vodafone Idea (VI). Among these:
- BSNL: It is unlikely that BSNL would switch off 2G, which operates in the 900 MHz band and is critical for basic voice services. Instead, BSNL likely decommissioned its 3G BTS operating in 2100 MHz band to free up spectrum for 4G.
- Bharti Airtel: Bharti’s 2G consolidation has been largely completed, and any further reductions are minimal. It is plausible that Airtel focused on adding 4G BTS without significant 2G/3G decommissioning during this period.
- Vodafone Idea (VI): VI operates a minimal 2G network for essential services, making further reductions in 2G unlikely. VI may have also decommissioned 3G BTS to reallocate spectrum for 4G.
The above assumptions on a minimal 2G decommissioning looks reasonable given that these operators need to support a Pan India coverage of 2G only feature phones which is still a sizable number (approximately 150 million). Hence, the only way to reconcile BSNL’s claim of deploying 61,492 new 4G BTS with the data from DoT’s dashboard is to assume that BSNL has decommissioned a substantial number of its 3G sites. This aligns with the broader industry trend of phasing out 3G in favor of 4G, given the latter’s superior efficiency and user demand for data services.
Implications for BSNL’s Service Quality
If BSNL has indeed decommissioned 3G sites and replaced them with 4G, what does this mean for the quality of its 4G services? The answer lies in the limitations of the 2100 MHz band, which BSNL uses for 3G and is now likely repurposing for 4G. The 2100 MHz band, while suitable for urban areas with dense populations, does not provide robust coverage over larger geographical areas due to its relatively higher frequency.
Even in urban areas this single band approach for 4G in the 2100 MHz band will be a huge challenge, given the RF waves of this band does not penetrate indoors. Therefore, Bharti Airtel, RJio, and even Vodafone Idea (VI) have deployed their 4G networks also on lower frequency bands (integrated with mid bands)—RJio on 800, 1800, 2300 MHz, Bharti on 900, 1800, 2300 MHz, and VI on 900, 1800 & 2500 MHz bands. This integrated approach of deploying 4G with lower frequency bands offer significantly better coverage, especially in rural and semi-urban areas, and penetrate buildings more effectively, ensuring a more consistent user experience.
This disparity in frequency bands puts BSNL’s 4G network at a severe disadvantage. Even with the deployment of 61,492 4G sites, BSNL’s coverage will struggle to match the seamless connectivity provided by its private counterparts. The higher frequency band used by BSNL means that many users, particularly in areas with weak signals, will frequently fall back to the 2G network for basic voice and data services. This fallback results in poor network performance, slow speeds, and user dissatisfaction—factors that are increasingly evident in consumer complaints about BSNL’s 4G quality.
In essence, while BSNL’s efforts to expand its 4G network are commendable, its reliance on the 2100 MHz band undermines its ability to compete effectively. Without access to lower frequency bands or significant infrastructure investment to densify its network, BSNL’s 4G services are likely to remain subpar, forcing many users to rely on outdated and inefficient 2G networks.
Exploring BSNL’s Options for Sub-GHz 4G Deployment
To improve coverage, BSNL could consider deploying 4G in the sub-GHz bands. However, its options are limited. The first potential option, the 900 MHz band, is already dedicated to 2G services, which cannot be dismantled due to its critical role in serving price-sensitive users who rely heavily on basic voice services. Shutting down 2G on this band would disrupt millions of users and is therefore not a viable choice.
The second option is deploying 4G in the 700 MHz band. While this low-frequency band offers excellent coverage and penetration, it introduces significant challenges for BSNL:
- Compromised 5G Migration Path: If BSNL deploys 4G in the 700 MHz band, its subsequent migration to 5G will become fragmented and inefficient. Once BSNL reallocates the 700 MHz band for 5G, its 4G services will need to shift to the 2100 MHz band (as BSNL lacks spectrum in the more commonly used 1800 MHz band for 4G). This transition would lead to coverage losses for customers using 4G-only handsets, causing substantial service disruptions and quality issues.
- Device Compatibility Issues: Budget-conscious users—BSNL’s core demographic—primarily use affordable devices, most of which lack support for 4G in the 700 MHz band. While devices supporting RJio’s 700 MHz 5G network are already available in the market, they are often higher-end models. These devices would support both 5G and 4G in the 700 MHz band, but it’s unlikely that budget-conscious users would purchase a 5G-capable phone just to access BSNL’s 4G network on the same band. Instead, such users would logically gravitate toward operators offering superior 5G services.
This creates a classic catch-22 for BSNL: deploying 4G in the 700 MHz band might improve coverage in the short term but would render the network less effective for budget users due to device limitations. Moreover, the subsequent migration to 5G would disrupt existing 4G users, negating the initial investment and eroding user trust. Deploying 4G in the 700 MHz band may appear attractive for its coverage benefits, but it poses long-term strategic and practical challenges for BSNL. Without a seamless migration path to 5G and affordable devices that support this band, BSNL risks alienating its core users and undermining its network expansion goals. The question remains: is it worth investing in a 4G deployment strategy that risks obsolescence and fails to address the needs of its primary customer base?
Conclusion
BSNL’s ongoing strategic missteps in spectrum allocation and network deployment are setting the stage for continued challenges in its 4G and 5G services. The reliance on the 2100 MHz band for 4G severely limits its ability to compete with private operators leveraging sub-GHz bands like 800 MHz and 900 MHz, which provide superior coverage and penetration. The attempt to deploy 4G in the 700 MHz band further complicates matters, as this spectrum is better suited for 5G and is not widely supported by budget-friendly devices, alienating BSNL’s core customer base.
A more practical and forward-looking strategy for BSNL would be to deploy 4G in the 800 MHz band, which is largely underutilized and had no takers in the last two spectrum auctions – a fact which I have discussed in my article “BSNL’s Revival Plan — Falling Just Short of the Finish Line“. This move would allow BSNL to offer better 4G coverage in rural and semi-urban areas by integrating 800 MHz with 2100 MHz band, while reserving the 700 MHz band exclusively for 5G deployment, ensuring a seamless migration path. By doing so, BSNL could maximize the efficiency of its spectrum resources, reduce network fragmentation, and better align with market and user demands.
Without a course correction, BSNL risks falling further behind private operators, leaving its customers with subpar services and little incentive to remain loyal. A strategic shift toward optimizing spectrum usage—particularly by leveraging the underutilized 800 MHz band for 4G—could be the key to improving network quality and ensuring the long-term viability of BSNL’s operations in an increasingly competitive telecom landscape.
Dear Parag
I just read the article . The figure of 4G BTSs by BSNL as on 6 December is correct. The assumption that BSNL has decommissioned 2G/3G BTSs is not correct. Also assumption that BSNL is only using 2100MHz is not correct. BSNL is using both low and mid band.The concern about 700 MHz use for 4G and migration to 5G has some value..but Pl note Airtel / VI is not using 700MHz for 5G, BSNL may follow similar path for 5G in lower band. Whats your comment!!!
Dear Ashok,
Let’s break this down logically:
BSNL has 70K sites, so deploying 62K 4G BTS implies most of these sites must be utilized (at least one BTS per frequency band) to maintain or maximize coverage. Otherwise, coverage will shrink. While 2G remains active, NOT decommissioning 3G limits their 4G options to the 700 MHz or 2500 MHz bands. If they’re using 2500 MHz, coverage will be far worse than it is now. This suggests their 4G deployment is primarily in the 700 MHz or 2100 MHz bands, as they lack 1800 MHz, and 900 MHz is dedicated to GSM. Crucially, deploying in 2100 MHz would require pulling down 3G operations currently using that band.
If all 62K BTS were deployed on 700 MHz, the quality of coverage would be significantly better. This raises questions: is the 62K figure inflated, or are most of these BTS deployed in 2100 MHz (with only some in 700 MHz)? The numbers don’t seem to add up otherwise.
5G Migration Concerns
If BSNL uses both 700 MHz and 2100 MHz for 4G, they’re left with only the 3500 MHz band for 5G. Contrast this with Airtel, which uses 3500 MHz and 1800 MHz for 5G and is likely to add 900 MHz in many circles (where they have 10 MHz+ holdings, and BSNL just have 6.2 MHz in 900 MHz which can’t be repurposed without pulling 2G down). Airtel’s 4G continues on portions of 1800 MHz and 3500 MHz, while their 5G spans 900 MHz, 3500 MHz, and even 600 MHz where 900 MHz isn’t available. Similarly, VI leverages significant 900 MHz spectrum in key circles for flexibility.
BSNL doesn’t have this flexibility. They can’t vacate 900 MHz, and achieving decent 4G quality and coverage requires both 700 MHz and 2100 MHz. This creates a serious 5G migration bottleneck unless:
The government opens the 600 MHz band (which lacks a device ecosystem and will take time to mature), or
BSNL repurposes the underutilized 800 MHz band (e.g., deploying at least 5 MHz in many regions).
The Alternative
Why not deploy 4G using a combination of 800 MHz and 2100 MHz, leaving 700 MHz exclusively for 5G? This approach avoids the high costs and limited ecosystem of 700 MHz devices in the affordable segment. Wouldn’t this strategy make more sense?
Regards,
Author
Superb Analysis Sir, Just read your article but I think , 800 MHz 4G band is already sold out to Jio in all 22 circles. You are missing another point BSNL Broadband/Wireless net etc is based on 3G network only. BSNL is still hesitant to remove 3G network completely because they don’t want to disappoint BSNL Broadband users because they are still using 3G Modems. Especially in some areas After launching 4G they are not removing 3G network completely. Phone is always shifting between 3G & 4G and this will frustrate users more and makes them to lose their trust in BSNL. BSNL will rapidly lose users and they will port to other private stable networks like Jio, Airtel, Vi. Total internet mobile user base shift to 5G will take another 5 years. BSNL will remain as intentionally loss making company and after VRS 2.0 employees will be fired and finally BSNL will be auctioned and sold to Adani. BSNL will be renamed as Adani Network 5G+6G and beyond in future…… BSNL will remain as “Very Unstable Poor Network”and TRAI will remain as “Puppet of Private Telecom” in Indian Telecom History.
Note: This is just my opinion, I’m not here to defame Adani because he bought some spectrum.
Thanks